Uman National University | today: 12/28/2025
| Author(s) | Спірідонов В. І., , , | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Economics | ||
| year | 2025 | issue | Issue 107 part 2 |
| pages | 456-474 | index UDK | 656.073:339.564]:004.94 | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2025-107-2-456-474 (Link) |
| Abstract | The article presents the results of a comprehensive simulation study examining the performance of Ukraine’s export logistics system under conditions of border blockages and uneven infrastructure load. The research was conducted using a hybrid modelling approach that integrates agent-based behaviour with discrete-event process flows, enabling the realistic reproduction of interactions between exporters, forwarding agencies, and carriers. The model incorporates all key export corridors – Polish, Slovak, Hungarian, Romanian routes, and the multimodal Danube cluster – allowing for the assessment of cargo flows across diverse transport environments. Three scenarios were analysed: (1) inertial continuation of routing through blocked Polish checkpoints, (2) reactive redirection of flows to neighbouring land corridors, and (3) an optimized multimodal portfolio generated through the OptQuest engine in AnyLogic. The findings show that both inertial and reactive routing strategies lead to rapid congestion, exponential queue formation, and sharp deterioration of logistics performance indicators. In contrast, the optimized strategy demonstrates a substantial improvement in reliability, delivery time, and overall cost efficiency by balancing flows across land and multimodal routes while accounting for infrastructure limitations. The study highlights the non-linear and emergent nature of disruptions within transport networks and demonstrates the value of simulation-based decision support for managing export operations under uncertainty. The developed modelling framework provides a foundation for future integration into a digital twin of Ukraine’s export logistics system, enabling real-time stress testing and proactive risk management. | ||
| Key words | export logistics, agent-based modelling, discrete-event simulation, border blockage, multimodal transport, optimization, supply chain resilience | ||