Uman NUH | today: 07/08/2024
| Author(s) |
Bechko P.K., Candidate of Economics, , Uman National University of Horticulture, Ukraine Бондаренко Н. В., , , Vlasyuk S.A., , , Uman National University of Horticulture Lysa N.V., Candidate of Economics Sciences, , Uman National University of Horticulture, Ukraine Ptashnyk S., Candidate of Ekonomikal Sciences, , Uman National University of Horticulture |
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| Category | Economics | ||
| year | 2024 | issue | Issue number 104. Part 2 |
| pages | 213-222 | index UDK | 347.7 | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2024-104-2-213-222 (Link) |
| Abstract | The article examines the financial forecasting of bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business entities. The author developed a list of normative indicators of bankruptcy forecasting and their values in accordance with current legislation. Based on the results of the analysis, the following results of the accuracy of bankruptcy forecasting were obtained by various methods according to the legislation and the most popular in countries with developed market relations, in particular the EU. As evidenced by the research data, the most effective method for predicting bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business entities is the Random Forest (RF) model, in which the overall predicted ability is based on both legislative variables and the most common in Western studies is the most acceptable of all the studied methods. Using the Random Forest (RF) method, the best combinations of variables included in the model and their values for determining bankruptcy from each group of economic entities and in the joint sample were determined. As a result of the conducted research, it was established that small and medium-sized business entities must be separated into a separate segment of the economy, taking into account the presence of certain features of their functioning, in connection with which they should be considered as separate categories of debtors within the framework of the legal regulation of the bankruptcy procedure. It was established that small and medium-sized business entities must be separated into a separate segment of the economy, taking into account the presence of certain features of their functioning, in connection with which they should be considered as separate categories of debtors within the framework of the legal regulation of the bankruptcy procedure. Using the most modern methodology, the predictive capabilities of the models were analyzed for each group of small and medium-sized business entities. Legislative variable methodological approaches are most common in countries with developed market relations, in particular the EU, which best contribute to the forecasting of bankruptcy for each of the analyzed groups. It was also established that the model for the general array of small and medium-sized business entities has a lower predictive ability, than for each group separately | ||
| Key words | corporate management, financial crisis of employment, bankruptcy probability prediction models, financial firmness, signs of crisis | ||