Uman National University | today: 12/28/2025
| Author(s) |
Худолій Л. М., , , Томашевська О. А., , , Barabash L.V., , , Uman National University of Horticulture, Ukraine |
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| Category | Economics | ||
| year | 2025 | issue | Issue 107 part 2 |
| pages | 253-274 | index UDK | 368.21(477):368.02 | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2025-107-2-253-274 (Link) |
| Abstract | The article is devoted to the theoretical and methodological foundations of analyzing and forecasting the auto insurance services market; trends in the development of this market in Ukraine over the past six years and in the future as a key segment of the national insurance market with a share of about 49% of its capacity. The article defines the economic essence of the auto insurance services market as a system of economic and legal relations between insurers and policyholders regarding the purchase and sale of insurance protection for motor vehicles and the civil liability of their owners. It has been clarified that the capacity of this market should be measured in monetary terms using insurance premium indicators rather than quantitative characteristics (number of contracts, companies, insured cars, policyholders, etc.), which are only factors influencing supply and demand. Based on data from the NBU, the National Financial Services Commission, and the Motor Insurance Bureau of Ukraine, the structural dynamics of demand in the Ukrainian market for 2018–2023 were analyzed and the following trends were identified: total premiums increased from UAH 13,0 billion to UAH 22,5 billion (by 74%); with CASCO accounting for 51% of demand, MTPL for 35%, and Green Card for 14%. A slowdown in the growth of the CASCO segment was observed during the period of martial law due to a decline in household incomes, the aging of the vehicle fleet, and a decrease in its size. At the same time, international insurance grew rapidly due to the mass migration of the population abroad at the beginning of the war. The use of correlation-regression modeling with linearization of dependencies made it possible to establish the significance of three main factors influencing the CASCO market: the number of contracts concluded (elasticity 1,27%), the number of insured events with compensation (1,12%), and household income (0,21%). The coefficient of determination of 0,989 confirms the high accuracy of the model. Based on the model, a forecast has been made according to which by the end of 2025, CASCO premium income could reach UAH 12,3 billion, and the total estimated capacity of the auto insurance market will be almost UAH 28 billion (EUR 586 million). At the same time, it is noted that market prospects necessitate the improvement of insurance companies' business initiatives, including in the direction of increasing compensation, expanding the range of services, developing the digitalization of the insurance business, and strengthening state policy in the field of competition protection and prevention of monopolization. | ||
| Key words | theoretical foundations of auto insurance, methodology for analyzing and forecasting the auto insurance services market, auto insurance services, market analysis, market capacity forecast, CASCO, MTPL | ||