Uman National University | today: 12/28/2025
| Author(s) |
Huzar B.S., Candidate of Economics Sciences, , Кисельов І. А., , , |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Economics | ||
| year | 2025 | issue | Issue 107 part 2 |
| pages | 371-386 | index UDK | 338.432:[330.131-025.47] | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2025-107-2-371-386 (Link) |
| Abstract | The aim of the work is to introduce integrated indices that will allow a quantitative assessment of the impact of various risk groups on the financial stability of agricultural enterprises and to identify the most critical factors of instability. The methodological apparatus is based on the phased identification of five basic risk groups – economic, climatic, logistical, social and military – with their subsequent aggregation using Min-Max normalisation to bring heterogeneous indicators to a single scale. To determine objectively the significance of each factor, a system of entropy weights based on Shannon's method was used, which automatically increases the weight of more unstable risk factors, minimising subjectivity in calculations. The integral risk index (Risk_Index) is calculated as the product of sub-indices raised to the degree of the corresponding entropy weights. The assessment of financial performance (FinPerf) was based on key ratios (autonomy, liquidity, profitability) using Z-score normalisation and expert weights (using the analytical hierarchy method), with profitability receiving the highest weight (30 %). The key results of the study show a radical transformation of the risk profile: the integral risk index demonstrates a transition from a low level in 2021 (0.842) to a critically high level in 2022–2023 ($\le 0.001 $). Entropy analysis confirmed the dominance of economic (0.424) and climatic (0.285) risks in the formation of sectoral risk, while military factors, despite their lower average weight, recorded peak destructive values. Correlation and regression analysis (R² = 0.661) revealed a paradoxical strong inverse relationship between economic risks and financial performance ($r = 0.628$), which is explained by the compensatory effect of devaluation for export-oriented agricultural enterprises. The most critical is a very strong direct correlation of military risks ($r = 0.891 $), which, however, reflects not only the shock effect, but also the process of selection and consolidation of the branch through the elimination of inefficient entities. At the same time, successful adaptation to logistical risks ($r = 0.021 $) has been recorded thanks to the diversification of export routes. The conclusions confirm the complex multifactorial structure of risks, where traditional factors are complemented by military threats, creating a unique mechanism for financial stability, while financial performance demonstrates the cyclical nature of recovery and the high capacity of agribusiness for structural adaptation in the face of extreme challenges. The proposed integrated risk index is a sensitive tool for the rapid redistribution of resources and the prevention of systemic financial losses. | ||
| Key words | agricultural sector, risks, factors, instability of the agricultural sector, key indicators, key indicators,normalisation method, entropic analysis, sub-indices, integral indexof risks and financial performance | ||