Uman National University | today: 12/28/2025
| Author(s) |
Ptashnyk S., Candidate of Ekonomikal Sciences, , Uman National University of Horticulture Ролінський О. В., , , |
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| Category | |||
| year | 2025 | issue | Issue 107 part 2 |
| pages | 409-419 | index UDK | 336.2; 336.14 | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2025-107-2-409-419 (Link) |
| Abstract | The article presents an empirical study of the impact of external public debt on the formation and implementation of Ukraine’s fiscal policy under conditions of war and economic instability. The study addresses the critical need for sustainable debt management, especially during periods of fiscal shocks and budgetary imbalances. The urgency of this issue is underscored by Ukraine’s current macroeconomic challenges, including high military expenditures, reduced revenue capacity, and growing dependence on international financial support. The purpose of the article is to assess the statistical relationship between the volume and structure of external debt and changes in Ukraine's fiscal indicators. Key tasks include analyzing the dynamics of external debt between 2010 and 2025, evaluating its influence on budget flexibility, and determining the debt burden’s impact on fiscal sustainability. The study employs a combination of statistical indices, chain and base indices, and per capita debt indicators to reveal patterns and identify fiscal vulnerabilities. The findings indicate a significant increase in external debt, especially during crisis periods (2014–2015, 2020, 2022–2024), with a sharp rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. In 2024, Ukraine’s external debt exceeded 90% of GDP, placing it in the high-debt risk category. This has significantly constrained fiscal space, limiting the government’s ability to conduct anti-cyclical and development-oriented fiscal policies. The budget deficit widened considerably, largely financed through external loans and grants, leading to increased financial vulnerability. The article highlights that external debt has transitioned from a supplementary financing tool to a dominant source of budget deficit coverage. This transformation poses strategic risks and emphasizes the need for fiscal reforms. Practical recommendations include implementing medium-term debt planning, strengthening domestic debt markets, enhancing transparency in debt operations, and adopting fiscal rules to cap uncontrolled debt growth. In conclusion, the research underscores the critical importance of aligning debt management with broader fiscal and economic policies to enhance resilience against external shocks. The authors suggest further studies on the interaction between debt dynamics and social expenditure, particularly under conditions of war-related budget constraints. | ||
| Key words | external debt, fiscal policy, public finance, debt burden, fiscal sustainability, budget deficit, debt management | ||