Uman National University | today: 06/19/2025
| Author(s) |
Радченя О. М., , , Klimenko L. V., , , Uman National University of Horticulture |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Economics | ||
| year | 2025 | issue | Випуск 106 Частина 2 |
| pages | 264-276 | index UDK | 330.342:005.21:355.02(477) | DOI | 10.32782/2415-8240-2025-106-2-264-276 (Link) |
| Abstract | The conducted research confirms the hypothesis that Ukraine’s economic recovery is not merely a technical or financial task but a complex process of strategic crisis management, requiring multi-level coordination, institutional renewal, and a focus on long-term resilience. To achieve the stated goal, a multi-level analysis of the current theoretical and methodological foundations of crisis management in Ukraine’s economic recovery processes was carried out. A comprehensive assessment of the national economy's current state was conducted, critical nodes of wartime impact on key macroeconomic indicators were identified, and scenario forecasting of possible recovery trajectories was performed based on defined indicators and influencing factors. It was established that the theoretical and methodological framework for economic recovery should integrate both classical strategic planning approaches and modern tools of scenario forecasting, institutional design, and socio-economic modelling. This enables the consideration of both external (geopolitical, security, investment) and internal (institutional, demographic, resource-based) factors. It was revealed that the key vectors of economic recovery include infrastructure reconstruction, institutional renewal, investment stimulation, repatriation of human capital, and inclusive social policy. According to the results of the SWOT analysis, it is necessary to minimize weaknesses (shadow economy, institutional inefficiency) and neutralize threats (migration, security risks) through the implementation of crisis response and long-term development programs. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the dynamics of economic recovery directly depend on the duration of the military conflict, the level of international support, the effectiveness of reforms, and the mobilization of internal resources. The optimistic scenario foresees stable GDP growth, active return of the labor force, and export expansion, whereas the pessimistic scenario threatens stagnation and deepening of the socio-economic crisis. The developed conceptual model of strategic management in recovery processes under crisis conditions encompasses key actors (the state, businesses, communities, international partners) and provides for the use of coordination mechanisms through strategic programming and adaptive policymaking. Particular importance is placed on the institutionalization of cooperation with international donors and the development of decentralized forms of governance. | ||
| Key words | management, economic recovery, national economy, war, post-war development, strategic management, crisis management, economic resilience, state economic policy, transformation | ||