The development of reliable methods for the long-term prediction of yield potential remains an important issue for production planning in the viticulture industry. The objective of the study was to develop and evaluate the reliability of a model for predicting the potential yield of grapevine plantations based on the parameters of cultivation technology, biological productivity of the variety and available environmental resources.
The experimental part of the research was carried out in 2021–2023 in the vineyards of the Tairov Institute of Viticulture and Oenology of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, in the Tairove village, Odesa district, Odesa region (46º36' N; 30º65' E). The experimental plots were planted in 2013 with wine grape varieties of new selection – Aromatniy and Zagrei – with different planting scheme parameters: 3 × 1.5 m (standard); 2 × 1.25 m. During the research, agro-meteorological observations were made and production yields were determined and compared with the data from the model for predicting the potential yield of vineyards.
The developed model for predicting potential yields is based on a quantitative assessment of the influence of parameters of the main factors: technology, variety, and environmental conditions. It takes into account the potential of photosynthetic productivity of the plantations and the corresponding level of potential yield in relation to the conditions of technology, as well as correction factors for the productivity of the variety and the environmental factor limiting the yield. It has been established that the developed model for predicting the potential yield of vineyards based on the parameters of cultivation technology, biological productivity of the variety and available environmental resources shows a sufficiently high reliability. The model can be used to calculate design yield when preparing design specifications for vineyards.