Uman NUH | today: 08/15/2021

INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO THE MODELING OF FORECAST SCENARIOS OF INVESTMENT CAPITAL ATTRACTION AS A METHOD OF SOLVING PROBLEMS OF FINANCING AND REALIZATION OF STATE PROGRAMS

Author(s) Novak I., Candidate of Economics Sciences, , Uman National University of Horticulture, Ukraine
Novak Y.W., Candidate of Agricultural Science, , Uman National University of Horticulture
Category Economics
year 2019 issue Issue number 95. Part 2
pages 42-58 index UDK 330:322
DOI 10.31395/2415-8240-2019-95-2-42-58 (Link)
Abstract It has been underlined in the paper that at present the major problem of the economy is a low level of capital inflows. As a result, poor logistics of the businesses leads to the manufacture of low-quality output, compensation is not observed by the workers, neither is social supply of the population. In these conditions a stable development of the country will depend on efficient measures of strategic planning and methods of government regulation of the development. The purpose of the research is to study the issues of planning and the results of the implementation of public development programs and to work out a proper approach to their financial security. The research showed that despite the fact that National programs of the economic and social development of the country were not adopted, documents were worked out at the level of regions and industries; however they were oriented on different laws, resolutions, etc. As the list of normative acts and recommendations as to their planning was changed every year, it had a negative impact on their implementation. But the main drawback of these documents was the lack of proper financing and their conformity to the national budget. It was stated that the real financing amount of public target programs was only 31.4% (the year of 2016). Economic programs received the least financing in money terms, namely UAH 139.4 bln, and in percentage term – those were defense programs – only 1.2% of the planned amount. This is a real problem for the implementation of strategic planning while working out these programs. Which is why, the experience of the U.S.A. and Great Britain concerning the result monitoring of the implementation of budget programs was studied. It has been stated that in the U.S.A. a system of a rating program (PART) has been used since 2002, it analyzes 20% of all budget programs. They are estimated according to a five-point scale which includes the following characteristics: efficiency, efficiency moderation, adequacy, inefficiency and failure to estimate. In Great Britain, since 1991, every ministry and department submits an annual report to the parliament which contains the results achieved in the implementation of a target program as well as the expected results in future. The application of this experience in domestic practice of public program planning will help avoid inefficient use of public funds and solve the problem of financing due to international experience of capital attraction of institutional investors. Predicted scenarios of the capital attraction as to the supply of farm enterprises with production facilities were simulated on the example of the agrarian sector of the national economy. A statistical pattern to model the effect of factors on the investment capital supply of farm enterprises in future was worked out. As the research results show, the asset attraction of the institutes of joint investment can improve the situation for farm enterprises as to their supply with production facilities considerably. A worked out simulation model can be used as a base model for working out the planning scenarios for the programs of social and economic development of other sectors of the national economy in Ukraine.
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