Uman NUH | today: 09/10/2019

Modern financial tools for predictive modeling of the agricultural sector

Author(s) Tranchenko L.V., Candidate of Ekonomikal Sciences, ,
Tranchenko A.M., Candidate of Ekonomikal Sciences, ,
Category Economics
year 2019 issue Випуск 94 Частина 2
pages 160-176 index UDK 338.27
DOI 10.31395/2415-8240-2019-94-2-160-176 (Link)
Abstract In the context of Ukraine’s integration into the world economic space, the agrarian sector is one of the priority strategically important sectors of the national economy. The aim of the study is to substantiate the theoretical, methodological and methodological foundations of the strategic management of the economic development of the regional agricultural sector, and to solve actual problems in order to optimize strategic management based on cognitive scenarios of balancing demand and supply in the agricultural market, probabilistic modeling, allows regions to identify "points of growth", optimize the sectoral structure of the economy, improve the quality and efficiency of the developed and implemented scene iev and strategies, and development of agricultural production in the region. As a result of the study, a scenario-probabilistic model of economic development of the regional agrarian sector has been proposed, which allows determining priority directions for the long-term perspective and, if necessary, adjusting the direction of development, taking into account various scenarios for the development of events on changing priorities at the macro level under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Based on the obtained results, it was concluded that there is a sectoral structure in the agro-industrial production of the region, ensuring its resistance to the effects of various groups of external factors. Virtually all sectors of the agro-industrial production have a significant impact on ensuring the growth of the regional (and national) economy (the correlation coefficients matter within (0.8-0.99). The exceptions are mixed agriculture, the production of pesticides and chemical products, and also the wholesale trade in agricultural raw materials and live animals (correlation coefficients below 0.5). It was determined that it is advisable to apply the scenario approach when developing strategies for the socio-economic development of districts and cities with the participation of territorial communities, the justification of alternative ways of developing the system in the future, and the like. Thus, the practical significance of research allows us to predict the strategic development of the agrarian sector of the region and its individual spheres through the use of a systematic approach and compositions of methodical approaches to analysis and forecasting, considering it as a complex and structured system.
Key words strategy, management, forecasting, planning, methods, modeling.
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